Jan. 4, 2012:  A recap of the 2011 market in the Village this year shows that 39 single-family houses, 8 townhouses, and 36 co-ops closed.  Compared to 2010, all categories showed a decline in the number of transactions (39 vs 59 single-family homes; 8 vs 16 townhouses; and 36 vs 41 co-ops).

Looking backward in the rearview mirror, we can see that on a quarterly basis, 2011 lagged 2010 in sale transactions but began to regain momentum in the second quarter.

At the end of the first quarter of 2011, there had been a mere 4 closings compared with 8 in 2010, a 50% decline.  But those stats improved with the number of closed deals in the second quarter, and by the end of the third quarter, the decline had diminished to 26.9%  (38 sales in 2011 compared to 52 in 2010).

However, just as we were appearing to climb out of the hole, the European debt crisis reared its ugly head locally.  Housing statistics have a lag period due to the usual 60- to 90-day window between the time a deal is signed and the actual closing date. Thus, although our markets were showing some strength as measured by deals closing, by late summer, the contagion of the European debt crisis had spread to our local markets causing an acute lack of new deals in our normally busy fall market.  A paralysis set in.

There was a two- to three-month period between mid-August and mid-November when there were no new deals being made, and eventually there were no houses in contract for single-family homes in the Village.  Deals in contract are a certain measure of the health of a market.  It seemed that buyers were also suffering a crisis of confidence and sellers were frustrated.

As we look at the change between early November and December 31, I am pleased to say that we are back on track.  As of December 31, seven single-family homes were in contract in the Village in about as many weeks.  Compared to last year at that time, we had four houses in contract at year-end (those reading carefully will note that they are the four that closed during the first quarter 2011).

For 2012:  Does this spike portend another year like 2010?  Most likely not, although one can hope.  What I suspect is that like all markets in recovery, results are rarely linear--there are steps forward and then retrenchments.  I do expect, though, that Bronxville will continue to follow in the steps of the global financial situation.  Indeed, Bronxville is a microcosm.

For 2012, the buzzword remains "value."  Buyers are in search of it and banks and appraisers have the final say-so on it, if a deal is subject to a mortgage contingency.  The other additional piece of advice for sellers is to stay the course and not to give in to the desire to predict when buyers will arrive, as noted by this year's late surge in buying.  Realtors would never have predicted that we would end this year as well poised as we are.

Here's to 2012 and good results for our local market!